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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."